Foreign Investors Sold US Treasuries in July. In August They Bought $90.9 Billion.

Foreign private investors net sold $29.1 billion of US Treasury notes and bonds in July 2026, then bought $90.9 billion in August, according to Treasury International Capital (TIC) data the US Treasury released on 16 October 2026. July was the only negative month for private Treasury buying in the four months that release's own table covers, May through August; August was the largest positive one.

Foreign official institutions, meaning central banks and sovereign funds, kept buying through both months: a net $25.5 billion in July, $18.1 billion in August. Whatever pulled private investors out of Treasury notes and bonds for one month did not reach the official sector, and it did not carry into the next month either.

A narrower number than the headline total

The TIC release reports two figures that get conflated in casual summaries. The broad total, "all long-term securities," bundles Treasury notes and bonds together with agency debt, corporate bonds and equities. A line underneath it isolates Treasuries alone. The broad private total for July 2026 was a net sale of just $3.7 billion, which reads like a rounding error against June's $172.2 billion of buying. The Treasury-only line underneath it was a net sale of $29.1 billion, close to eight times larger. The broad number looked calmer because private investors used the same month to buy $15.5 billion of government agency bonds and $20.5 billion of corporate bonds, money with its own demand drivers and nothing to do with Treasury-specific appetite.

August ran the same reconciliation in the other direction. Private investors bought $90.9 billion of Treasuries and $257.8 billion of long-term securities overall, with most of the gap made up by $131.9 billion of equity purchases, a market move with its own causes that the TIC data does not explain either.

Official buying barely moved

Central banks and sovereign funds are the TIC category least likely to trade on a one-month view; they hold Treasuries mostly for reserve purposes and are typically described as insensitive to price. That showed up in the data. Official net Treasury buying went from $25.5 billion in July to $18.1 billion in August, a far smaller swing than the roughly $120 billion move on the private side. May and June were smaller again: $3.0 billion, then a net sale of $9.8 billion. Four months, four different numbers, none of them tracking the private side's reversal.

The rebound came after yields had already moved

Private buying came back in a month when Treasuries were not cheap by the recent standard. The 10-year yield closed May at 4.45% and June at 4.44%, then jumped to 4.75% by 31 July, the same month private investors sold. It held at 4.75% through 31 August, the month they bought $90.9 billion; it did not retreat. The 30-year moved the same way: 4.99% in May, 4.91% in June, up to 5.27% in July, easing only 2 basis points to 5.25% in August. By 22 October the 10-year was at 4.96% and the 30-year at 5.29%, both higher than any of the four months the TIC table covers.

The TIC release does not say why private investors sold in July or bought in August. It reports totals, not motives, and no Treasury statement addressed either month specifically. The simplest reading consistent with the yield path is that July's jump was itself enough to draw buyers back the following month, a price response rather than a change of view. That reading is an inference from the fact that the rebound followed the yield move rather than preceded it. It is not in the data, and the data does not rule out other explanations either.

What's next

The next TIC release, covering September 2026, is due 18 November 2026. It will show whether August's rebound held for a second month or whether, like July's sale, it turns out to have been a one-off.

Take the bear case first: one strong month is also just one month. Private investors turned negative on Treasury notes and bonds in July, proving they can do it, and a buyer who returns only after the yield has moved up is being paid to show up, not voting confidence in the asset. If September's release shows another sale, August reads as the outlier, not July.

Our reading is narrower. Private buying returned the month after the 10-year first closed above 4.7% in this window, and the yield did not retreat in August, it held at July's level, which fits a price-sensitive buyer being paid enough to return rather than a buyer having second thoughts about the asset itself. Official institutions, the one group in this data that is not supposed to trade on price, moved far less across the same four months: $3.0 billion, a $9.8 billion sale, $25.5 billion, $18.1 billion. That path looks closer to noise around a reserve target than to a signal either way.

What we would still want before calling July the outlier rather than August: a second data point. One month of private selling followed by one month of private buying is two observations, not a trend, and the Treasury's own table treats them as exactly that, four columns with no trend line drawn through them.

Did foreign investors stop buying US Treasuries in July 2026?

Private foreign investors net sold $29.1 billion of US Treasury notes and bonds in July 2026, the US Treasury's TIC data (released 16 October 2026) shows the only negative month of the four shown in that release's table (May through August). Foreign official institutions, meaning central banks and sovereign funds, kept buying through July: a net $25.5 billion.

Did foreign demand for Treasuries recover in August 2026?

Yes. Private foreign investors bought a net $90.9 billion of Treasury notes and bonds in August 2026, the largest of the four months the Treasury's TIC release for August shows, reversing July's $29.1 billion net sale. Official institutions bought $18.1 billion in August, close to July's $25.5 billion.

What is TIC data and how often is it released?

Treasury International Capital (TIC) data is the US Treasury's monthly account of foreign purchases and sales of US securities, split between private investors and official institutions. It is released roughly two and a half months after the month it covers; the August 2026 data came out 16 October 2026, and the next release, covering September 2026, is scheduled for 18 November 2026.

Why did foreign private Treasury demand fall in July 2026 then rebound in August?

The TIC release reports totals, not reasons; the Treasury does not attribute the monthly swings to a cause, and no Treasury statement addressed the July dip specifically. July's broader figure for all foreign private purchases of long-term US securities, not just Treasuries, was close to flat, a net sale of $3.7 billion, because private investors bought $15.5 billion of agency bonds and $20.5 billion of corporate bonds that same month, partly offsetting the Treasury-specific sale.

Are central banks buying or selling US Treasuries in 2026?

Foreign official institutions, the TIC category covering central banks and sovereign funds, bought Treasury notes and bonds in every month from May through August 2026 except June: $3.0 billion in May, a net sale of $9.8 billion in June, $25.5 billion in July, and $18.1 billion in August.